EURUSD H1
The point-X (Last high) is the first day of September. The day became turning point of EURUSD based on the factors as follows.
- Concerns about overbought of EUR
- Achievement of 1.20
- Mr. Lane ECB Chief Economist’s remark on the EURO’s high valuation
- Strong US ISM Manufacturing report on business
- Resisted by weekly pivot (R2)
Point -A was supported by weekly pivot (S1), and bullish regular divergence of RSI and CCI occurred.
Point-B (Fibonacci 0.618 of XA) was established by ECB’s remark that they do not need to overreact about EUR appreciation.
I will make scinario to reach the target Point-D (Fibonacci 0.786 of XA, around 1.1955). But if UK’s hard Brexit risk increase, GBPUSD will drop sharply more, and EURUSD will be affected.
Critical level:
1.1900, 1.1911 (Fibo 0.618), 1.1925 (Weekly Pivot R1), 1.1955 (Fibo 0.786)
1.1839 (Weekly Pivot), 1.1800, 1.1770 (Weekly Pivot S1)
Please click the chart to enlarge.
AUDUSD H1
As for AUDUSD, it is almost same situation, I will target Point-D (Fibonacci 0.786 of XA, around 0.7365). UK’s hard Brexit risk might be smaller than Euro.
Critical level:
0.7300, 0.7342 (Weekly Pivot R1), 0.7365 (Fibo 0.786)
0.7267 (Weekly Pivot), 0.7209 (Weekly Pivot S1)
GBPUSD H1
As for GBPUSD, it reached Fibonacci 1.618 (Crab pattern level) , we can see bullish regular divergence of RSI and CCI. But I will wait and see. It depends on UK and EU trade talk. As the worst scenario, we might see around 1.206 (Last low: 18th of May, Weekly pivot R3, and Fibo extension of 1.618). Before that there are resistance levels such as 1.26125 (Weekly pivot S1 and Fibo 0.618), 1.2429 (Weekly pivot S2)
